Because of the way Senate seats are apportioned out to each election cycle, the Democrats are having to defend a lot more seats than the Republican Party in the 2018 election cycle. The Democrats were depending upon President Donald Trump being a dismal failure and using voter dissatisfaction to regain control of the Senate and even possibly the House. It is not working out that way. Here are how the numbers are looking at this time.
As Written and Reported By John Sexton for Hot Air:
As you probably know already, Democrats are facing a tough map in the Senate this year. They have to defend 10 seats in red states and try to pick up two additional seats in order to take control of the Senate. This morning, Axios published a poll conducted with Survey Monkey which shows that isn’t happening. The site’s headline says it all: “Democrats’ Senate dream slips away.”
The state of play: The polls shows three Democratic senators are poised to lose their seats to Republicans — Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Bill Nelson in Florida and Joe Donnelly in Indiana.
The site does note that the fates of Joe Manchin in West Virginia and Jon Tester in Montana have improved substantially since the last poll. And Democrats currently appear poised to pick up seats in Arizona and Nevada, though both races are still tight.
The site ran all of the matchups under six different turnout scenarios but no matter how optimistic the turnout projection was for Democrats the bottom line was still the same:
- Even under the most optimistic scenarios for Democrats across all 13 states, they would still lose the same seats by a range of one percentage point to 14 percentage points.
- Under Republicans’ most bullish forecast, they would actually pick up six seats, the four mentioned above plus ………
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